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Seats at dissolution
Polling average
Voting intention
What the lead is worth
Every poll
| Firm | Dates | NDP | Con | Green | Centre | OneBC | Other | Sample | Method | Lead | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Innovative Research | Sep 4 to 18, 2026 | 43 | 39 | 14 | · | · | 4 | 500 | Online | NDP +4 | NDP 53 |
| Angus Reid | Sep 8 to 15, 2026 | 41 | 37 | 13 | · | · | 9 | 749 | Online | NDP +4 | NDP 53 |
| Ipsos | Sep 8 to 14, 2026 | 45 | 35 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 800 | Online | NDP +10 | NDP 68 |
| Research Co. | Aug 12 to 14, 2026 | 44 | 39 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 801 | Online | NDP +5 | NDP 57 |
| 604 Polling | Jul 31 to Aug 8, 2026 | 35 | 45 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1,124 | IVR | Con +10 | Con 68 |
| Yorkville Strategies | Jul 28 to Aug 3, 2026 | 46 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1,016 | Online | NDP +6 | NDP 58 |
| Fairview Strategy | Jul 6 to 17, 2026 | 44 | 40 | 12 | · | · | 5 | 896 | Online | NDP +4 | NDP 54 |
| Angus Reid | Jun 1 to 12, 2026 | 36 | 47 | 11 | · | · | 6 | 755 | Online | Con +11 | Con 68 |
| Research Co. | Jun 3 to 5, 2026 | 42 | 42 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 803 | Online | Tie | Con 47 |
| Leger | Jun 1 to 2, 2026 | 41 | 45 | 8 | · | · | 6 | 1,002 | Online | Con +4 | Con 54 |
| Angus Reid | Apr 24 to 28, 2026 | 36 | 46 | 13 | · | · | 4 | 804 | Online | Con +10 | Con 66 |
| Mainstreet Research | Apr 9 to 13, 2026 | 38 | 32.8 | 16.1 | · | 10.9 | 2.2 | 1,275 | Smart IVR | NDP +5.2 | NDP 52 |
| Leger | Apr 3 to 6, 2026 | 44 | 40 | 10 | · | 3 | 4 | 1,003 | Online | NDP +4 | NDP 55 |
| Angus Reid | Mar 11 to 17, 2026 | 42 | 44 | 9 | · | · | 7 | 499 | Online | Con +2 | Con 53 |
| Mainstreet Research | Mar 11 to 13, 2026 | 39 | 37 | 12 | · | · | 13 | 1,054 | Smart IVR | NDP +2 | NDP 49 |
| Innovative Research | Feb 6 to March 3, 2026 | 39 | 47 | 10 | · | · | 4 | 991 | Online | Con +8 | Con 60 |
| Pallas Data | Feb 12 to 27, 2026 | 42 | 40 | 11 | · | 5 | 2 | 1,256 | IVR | NDP +2 | NDP 47 |
| One Persuasion | Feb 21 to 24, 2026 | 37 | 41 | 11 | · | 6 | 5 | 1,005 | Online | Con +4 | Con 54 |
| Pallas Data | Feb 12 to 14, 2026 | 42 | 37 | 13 | · | 6 | 2 | 988 | IVR | NDP +5 | NDP 56 |
| Leger | Feb 6 to 9, 2026 | 44 | 39 | 9 | · | 5 | 2 | 1,007 | Online | NDP +5 | NDP 56 |
| Leger | Jan 23 to 26, 2026 | 44 | 38 | 9 | · | 6 | 3 | 1,003 | Online | NDP +6 | NDP 59 |
| Mainstreet Research | Dec 17 to 18, 2025 | 41 | 41 | 10 | · | 7 | · | 1,902 | Smart IVR | Tie | Con 48 |
| Pallas Data | Dec 11 to 13, 2025 | 44 | 39 | 9 | · | 7 | 1 | 923 | IVR | NDP +5 | NDP 56 |
| Angus Reid | Nov 26 to Dec 1, 2025 | 43 | 40 | 11 | · | · | 8 | 463 | Online | NDP +3 | NDP 52 |
| Yorkville Strategies | Nov 24 to 25, 2025 | 40 | 42 | 8 | · | 5 | 4 | 600 | IVR | Con +2 | Con 53 |
| EKOS | Nov 20 to 25, 2025 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 889 | Telephone | NDP +9 | NDP 67 |
| Angus Reid | Oct 23 to 25, 2025 | 40 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1,044 | Online | Con +1 | Con 50 |
| Abacus Data | Oct 9 to 15, 2025 | 47 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 1 | · | 1,000 | Online | NDP +7 | NDP 60 |
| Leger | Oct 10 to 12, 2025 | 48 | 38 | 8 | · | · | 7 | 1,035 | Online | NDP +10 | NDP 65 |
| Cardinal Research | Oct 4 to 6, 2025 | 42.5 | 41.3 | 10 | · | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1,088 | IVR | NDP +1.2 | NDP 46 |
| Research Co. | Oct 1 to 3, 2025 | 44 | 38 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 801 | Online | NDP +6 | NDP 58 |
| Angus Reid | Aug 28 to Sep 5, 2025 | 42 | 44 | 10 | · | · | 4 | 811 | Online | Con +2 | Con 53 |
| Mainstreet Research | Jun 23 to 24, 2025 | 41 | 44 | 7 | · | · | 8 | 943 | Smart IVR | Con +3 | Con 54 |
| Research Co. | Jun 7 to 9, 2025 | 43 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 803 | Online | NDP +1 | NDP 47 |
| Leger | May 23 to 25, 2025 | 45 | 39 | 11 | · | · | 5 | 1,032 | Online | NDP +6 | NDP 58 |
| Canadian Election Study | Apr 29 to May 13, 2025 | 42 | 34 | 6 | · | · | 18 | 1,649 | Online | NDP +8 | NDP 64 |
| Liaison Strategies | May 2 to 4, 2025 | 45 | 47 | 7 | · | · | 2 | 800 | IVR | Con +2 | Con 55 |
| Research Co. | Mar 3 to 5, 2025 | 44 | 42 | 11 | · | · | 3 | 802 | Online | NDP +2 | NDP 50 |
| Pallas Data | Feb 15, 2025 | 48.8 | 40.7 | 7.6 | · | · | 2.9 | 677 | IVR | NDP +8.1 | NDP 63 |
| Leger | Jan 24 to 26, 2025 | 44 | 42 | 10 | · | · | 4 | 1,001 | Online | NDP +2 | NDP 50 |
Official pages on watch
Polls: Wikipedia's table, each row linked to the pollster's release where Wikipedia cites one. Seat projections: 338Canada.
Key dates
How an election is called
- BC has a fixed election date: the third Saturday in October, four years after the last general election. This one was called early; the fixed date would have been October 21, 2028.
- The Lieutenant Governor can still dissolve the Legislature sooner, on the Premier's advice. The fixed date does not remove that power.
- In an early election, final voting day must be a Saturday between the 32nd and 38th day after the writ is issued. This one was called on Tuesday, September 22, so final voting day is Saturday, October 24.
- BC's local elections are on Saturday, October 17, 2026, a week before provincial voting day, so the two campaigns run at the same time.
- An early election resets the clock. The next fixed date is October 19, 2030, which is also a local election day, so cabinet will have to choose another date after consulting the Chief Electoral Officer and party leaders.
When the Legislature dissolves
- Dissolution ends the Parliament. MLAs lose their seats, committees stop, and any bill that has not received royal assent is lost. A returning government has to introduce it again.
- The Premier and cabinet stay in office through the campaign, and until a new cabinet is sworn in.
- The Legislature does not return quickly. After the October 2024 election it first sat on February 18, 2025, when the Speaker was chosen and the Throne Speech was read.
The caretaker period
- From the call until a new cabinet is sworn in, government works in what it calls a caretaker period.
- By convention it avoids major new policy and new contracts that would bind an incoming government, suspends ordinary Cabinet and Treasury Board meetings, and defers major decisions, even though ministers can still legally act.
- BC has no stand-alone written caretaker guideline. The government's own guide to managing records during an election describes the convention; the federal Privy Council Office publishes the most detailed version.
- Government advertising pauses as well. Government policy limits advertising, communications and social media, from the call until a new cabinet is sworn in, to public health and safety, legally required notices and service information.
- Elections BC warns that a government ad which promotes a party, or takes a position on an issue a party is associated with, can count as election advertising.
If you deal with government
- Lobbying rules do not pause. The Lobbyists Transparency Act still applies, and registrations and monthly returns carry on as normal.
- Lobbying the Premier, ministers, their staff or public servants still has to be reported. MLAs stop being public office holders at dissolution. Lobbying a candidate is not registrable, but it becomes reportable if the candidate wins.
- Gifts and contributions to a candidate can also become reportable if the winner is later lobbied.
- Anyone sponsoring election advertising during the campaign, including an ad that takes a position on an issue a party or candidate is associated with, must register with Elections BC first. There is no minimum spend.
- Third party spending is capped. In 2024 the limits were $3,708.62 in a district and $185,431.24 in total; they are recalculated when an election is called.
How to vote
- You can vote if you are a Canadian citizen, 18 or older on final voting day, have lived in BC for the six months before it, and live in the electoral district. You can register when you vote.
- Advance voting runs for six days, Friday to Wednesday before voting day, 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. On final voting day, voting places are open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Pacific.
- You can vote at any voting place in the province, still for your own district. You can also vote at any district electoral office until 4 p.m. on voting day, or by mail, as long as the ballot arrives by 8 p.m. that day.
- Bring one piece of government ID with your name, photo and home address, such as a BC driver's licence or a BC Services Card with photo, or a Certificate of Indian Status. Or bring two documents with your name, at least one showing your address.
- No ID? A registered voter who lives in your district, a close relative, or someone with legal authority over your personal care can vouch for you.
On voting day
- Campaign advertising in a district stops on final voting day until its polls close, with a few narrow exceptions.
- Opinion poll results not published before cannot be released on voting day until polls close.
- No campaign material is allowed within 100 metres of a voting place.
Election night and after
- There are 93 seats. A party needs 47 for a majority.
- Most ballots are counted on election night. The final count adds the rest, mostly mail ballots that arrived in the last days, and cannot start before the fourth day after voting. Only then is anyone officially declared elected.
- A tie, or a margin of less than one in 500 ballots, goes to an automatic judicial recount. In 2024, Kelowna Centre and Surrey-Guildford both did.
- If no party wins 47, the Premier stays in office unless they resign or lose the confidence of the House. Losing a confidence vote does not remove a government by itself; the Lieutenant Governor decides what happens next. In 2017 the government lost one on June 29, and John Horgan was Premier by July 18.
How to read this tracker
- Confirmed means it is in the official record: the Legislative Assembly's register, or Elections BC. Reported means credible media have it and the official record has not caught up yet, or cannot carry it: CentreBC and OneBC are not recognized parties, so their members stay reported.
- The polling average weights each poll by how recent it is and how many people it asked, and says when every poll in it predates a major event.
- The seat projection is a swing model on the 2024 results, shown as a range.
Checked against each card's sources on Monday, September 21, 2026. Not legal advice.
BC NDP

Leader ratings
Recent
- Jul 3confirmed
Not running again
Conservative

Leader ratings
Recent
- Sep 227 MLAs rejoin from CentreBCreported
- Sep 22reported
- Sep 22reported
- Sep 21Five MLAs readmitted to the Conservative caucus by interim leader Doerksonconfirmed
BC Green
Leader ratings
CentreBC

Leader ratings
Recent
- Sep 227 MLAs leave, now Conservativereported
- Sep 18Milobar takes over CentreBC, bringing the group to eight sitting MLAsreported
- Sep 188 MLAs join from Independentreported
- Sep 14Milobar's party reaches seven MLAsreported
OneBC

Leader ratings
Recent
- Sep 22reported
- Dec 21reported
- Dec 16OneBC loses recognized party status in the Legislatureconfirmed
- Dec 16confirmed
Independent
Leaders: party announcements, checked against Wikipedia's infobox; Elections BC's register as of September 23, 2026. Seats and offices: the Assembly register. Ratings: only what a named pollster published.
Nominations
| Peace River North› | 54.2% | Conservative | Safe | · | 1 | |
| North Coast-Haida Gwaii› | 29.8% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Bulkley Valley-Stikine› | 13.4% | Conservative | Lean | · | · | |
| Peace River South› | 45.3% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Skeena› | 6.8% | Conservative | Toss-up | · | 4 | |
| Nechako Lakes› | 40.2% | Conservative | Safe | · | 25 | |
| Prince George-Mackenzie› | 32.7% | Conservative | Safe | · | 2 | |
| Prince George-North Cariboo› | 35.0% | Conservative | Safe | · | 2 | |
| North Island› | 2.1% | BC NDPgain | Toss-up | · | · | |
| Cariboo-Chilcotin› | 39.2% | Conservative | Safe | · | 50 | |
| Prince George-Valemount› | 20.3% | Conservative | Safe | · | 2 | |
| Mid Island-Pacific Rim› | 9.3% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Courtenay-Comox› | 0.3% | BC NDPgain | Lean | · | 4 | |
| Kamloops-North Thompson› | 26.8% | Conservative | Safe | · | 3 | |
| Columbia River-Revelstoke› | 3.7% | BC NDPgain | Toss-up | · | 12 | |
| Kootenay-Rockies› | 12.3% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Ladysmith-Oceanside› | 6.0% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Nanaimo-Lantzville› | 12.2% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Fraser-Nicola› | 17.9% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Kamloops Centre› | 7.9% | Conservative | Toss-up | · | 30 | |
| Salmon Arm-Shuswap› | 21.7% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Kootenay Central› | 8.0% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Nanaimo-Gabriola Island› | 18.1% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Cowichan Valley› | 2.9% | BC NDP | Lean | · | · | |
| Vernon-Lumby› | 1.7% | BC NDP | Lean | · | · | |
| Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream› | 18.7% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Kootenay-Monashee› | 13.2% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Juan de Fuca-Malahat› | 0.6% | BC NDP | Toss-up | · | · | |
| Saanich North and the Islands› | 4.0% | BC Green | Safe | · | · | |
| West Kelowna-Peachland› | 22.9% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Kelowna Centre› | 0.2% | BC NDPgain | Lean | · | · | |
| Kelowna-Mission› | 18.9% | Conservative | Safe | · | 3 | |
| Langford-Highlands› | 14.5% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Saanich South› , not running again | Not running again | 17.3% | BC NDP | Safe | · | 8 |
| Powell River-Sunshine Coast› | 13.9% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Boundary-Similkameen› | 5.8% | Conservative | Toss-up | · | 5 | |
| Penticton-Summerland› | 1.1% | BC NDPgain | Lean | Warren Hamm | · | |
| Esquimalt-Colwood› | 22.2% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Oak Bay-Gordon Head› | 20.2% | BC NDP | Safe | · | 2 | |
| Victoria-Beacon Hill› | 13.9% | BC Greengain | Lean | · | · | |
| Victoria-Swan Lake› | 32.9% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| West Vancouver-Sea to Sky› | 2.5% | BC Green | Safe | Jeremy Valeriote | · | |
| West Vancouver-Capilano› | 19.5% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| North Vancouver-Lonsdale› | 29.8% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| North Vancouver-Seymour› | 17.0% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Vancouver-Point Grey› | 22.3% | BC NDP | Safe | · | 117 | |
| Vancouver-West End› | 35.8% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Vancouver-Yaletown› | 6.4% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Vancouver-Strathcona› Vacant | Vacant Was Joan Phillip | 51.1% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · |
| Vancouver-Hastings› | 39.9% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Vancouver-Renfrew› | 32.6% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Vancouver-Quilchena› | 12.7% | BC NDPgain | Lean | · | 1 | |
| Vancouver-South Granville› | 39.4% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Vancouver-Little Mountain› | 31.5% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Vancouver-Kensington› | 29.4% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Vancouver-Fraserview› | 20.6% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Vancouver-Langara› | 2.4% | BC NDP | Lean | · | · | |
| Burnaby Centre› | 14.6% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Burnaby North› | 10.3% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Burnaby East› | 11.3% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Richmond-Steveston› , not running again | Not running again | 2.1% | BC NDP | Lean | · | 5 |
| Richmond Centre› | 15.2% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Richmond-Bridgeport› | 23.4% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Richmond-Queensborough› | 6.8% | Conservative | Toss-up | · | · | |
| Burnaby South-Metrotown› | 7.7% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Burnaby-New Westminster› | 25.3% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| New Westminster-Coquitlam› | 29.3% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Coquitlam-Maillardville› | 12.2% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Port Coquitlam› | 15.1% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Port Moody-Burquitlam› | 11.6% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Coquitlam-Burke Mountain› | 1.7% | BC NDP | Lean | · | · | |
| Delta South› | 10.1% | Conservative | Lean | Jim McMurtry | · | |
| Delta North› , not running again | Not running again | 12.5% | BC NDP | Safe | · | 10 |
| Surrey City Centre› | 1.6% | BC NDP | Lean | · | · | |
| Surrey-Newton› | 8.2% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Surrey-Guildford› | 0.1% | BC NDP | Lean | · | · | |
| Surrey-Fleetwood› | 3.7% | BC NDP | Lean | · | · | |
| Surrey North› | 7.4% | Conservative | Toss-up | · | · | |
| Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows› | 9.8% | BC NDP | Safe | · | · | |
| Maple Ridge East› | 0.4% | BC NDPgain | Lean | · | · | |
| Langley-Walnut Grove› | 4.8% | BC NDPgain | Toss-up | · | · | |
| Abbotsford-Mission› Vacant | Vacant Was Reann Gasper | 10.8% | Conservative | Lean | · | 25 |
| Surrey-White Rock› | 7.0% | Conservative | Toss-up | · | 10 | |
| Surrey-Panorama› | 1.5% | BC NDPgain | Lean | · | 2 | |
| Surrey-Serpentine River› | 2.2% | BC NDPgain | Toss-up | · | 9 | |
| Surrey-Cloverdale› | 2.8% | BC NDPgain | Safe | · | 13 | |
| Surrey South› | 17.7% | BC NDPgain | Lean | · | 4 | |
| Langley-Willowbrook› | 3.8% | BC NDPgain | Toss-up | · | · | |
| Langley-Abbotsford› | 21.9% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Abbotsford West› | 21.5% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Abbotsford South› | 26.4% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Chilliwack North› | 16.9% | Conservative | Safe | · | · | |
| Chilliwack-Cultus Lake› | 9.2% | Conservative | Lean | · | · |
Margins: 2024, share of valid votes. Projection: the simulator at the polling average, independents off. Candidates: party websites until Elections BC's list.
Election simulator
Seats
Map
NDP and Green move with their province-wide change. The right-of-centre vote in each riding scales with the combined Conservative, CentreBC and OneBC share and divides by their ratio; a party with a sitting MLA keeps at least the incumbent share there. Modelled forecast: 338Canada.